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Anwar Ibrahim

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Anwar Ibrahim


Pakatan menang dua pertiga di kerusi campuran pada PRU13, dedah kajian

Posted: 22 May 2013 05:30 AM PDT

The Malaysian Insider

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Pakatan Rakyat (PR) memenangi 59 kerusi campuran di Parlimen pada pilihan raya umum ke-13 (PRU13) iaitu hampir dua kali ganda daripada 30 kemenangan di kerusi majoriti Cina, menurut kajian terbaru yang sekaligus menolak dakwaan “Tsunami Cina” oleh Barisan Nasional (BN) sebagai punca kekalahan.

Badan pengkaji atas talian bebas tersebut berkata parti pemerintah BN memenangi banyak undi di kawasan luar bandar manakala PR meningkatkan sokongan di kawasan bandar dan separa bandar di negara yang sedang mengejar status negara maju 2020.

“BN mewakili majoriti luar bandar dan dapat mengekalkan kuasa dengan luar bandar dan kerusi separa bandar sahaja. Pilihan raya kali ini menunjukkan PR lemah di luar bandar yang terdiri daripada kerusi majoriti Bumiputera Sabah dan Sarawak,” kata laporan itu, yang boleh didapati dalam blog rasmi PoliTweet.

Menurut PoliTweet, 108 daripada 133 kerusi (81 peratus) dimenangi BN adalah di kerusi luar bandar, manakala PR memenangi kerusi bandar atau separa bandar hampir dengan peratusan sama (72 daripada 89 kerusi).

PR memenangi semua 16 kerusi bandar majoriti Cina, 12 kerusi bandar Melayu dan 12 kerusi bandar campuran, memberikan mereka 40 daripada jumlah keseluruhan 43 kerusi bandar (93 peratus). Sebagai perbandingan, BN hanya memenangi 4 kerusi bandar Melayu dan 1 kerusi bandar campuran.

Daripada 54 kerusi separa bandar, PR memenangi 34 daripadanya (63 peratus). BN menang baki daripada kerusi separa bandar dengan kawasan separa bandar Melayu adalah sebahagian besarnya 12 kerusi tersebut.]

PoliTweet juga menunjukkan PR memenangi lebih banyak kerusi bandar dan separa bandar majoriti Melayu berbanding BN, ia menunjukkan kerusi majoriti Melayu bukan lagi jaminan kemenangan untuk BN.

Dalam kajiannya, PoliTweet mengkategorikan kerusi kepada tiga kategori yang tidak mengikut klasifikasi oleh Suruhanjaya Pilihan Raya (SPR), tetapi lebih berdasarkan imej satelit peta Google dan peta SPR.

PoliTweet menggariskan kawasan “pendalaman” terdiri daripada kampung, bandar kecil atau tanah ladang dan kelihatan lebih besar secaara fizikal dengan populasi yang kecil. Kawasan “bandar” pula terdiri daripada bandar yang diliputi dengan betuk pembangunan bandar. Kawasan “separa bandar” adalah gabungan kedua-duanya sekali.

Dibawha tiga kategori itu, PoliTweet membahagikan 125 kerusi sebagai luar bandar, 54 separa bandar dan 43 adalah bandar.

Kawasan bandar terdiri sedikit melebihi daripada setengah kerusi majoriti Cina, tetapi kerusi majoriti Melayu masih lagi didominasi di luar bandar. Walaubagaimanapun terdapat lebih banyak kerusi separa bandar yang majoritinya adalah Melayu berbanding majoriti Cina dan kawasan campuran dicampur-aduk sekali.

Firma kajian itu juga menekankan kebarangkalian rendah BN untuk memenangi semula kerusi bandar, memandangkan BN hanya memperoleh 47 peratus undi popular di kerusi separa bandar dan 36 peratus di kerusi bandar, berbanding 57 peratus yang diperolehnya di kerusi luar bandar.

Dalam Banci Penduduk dan Perumahan Malaysia terkini pada tahun 2010 menunjukkan populasi di bandar Malaysia berlaku peningkatan mendadak sejak tahun 1960-an, dengan 71 peratus daripada rakyat Malaysia tinggal di kawasan bandar. Bank Dunia bagaimanapun meletakkan jumlah sedikit lebih tinggi sedikit pada 72 peratus.

Wilayah Persekutuan Kuala Lumpur dan Putrajaya kedua-duanya telah mencapai 100 peratus status kemajuan, manakala Selangor dan Pulau Pinang – kedua-dua kini diperintah oleh PR – merupakan yang tertinggi selepas kedua-dua bandar utama itu adalah dengan lebih 90 peratus status kemajuan.

Kebetulan, Selangor adalah negeri yang paling ramai penduduk dengan 5.46 juta orang, dan seiring dengan Putrajaya, mempunyai kadar pertumbuhan tertinggi di Malaysia disebabkan oleh penghijrahan dan peluang pekerjaan.

Dalam forum yang dianjurkan oleh Pusat Demokrasi dan Pilihan Raya Universiti Malaya (UMCEDEL) minggu lepas, pemerhati bebas pilihan raya Merdeka Centre mendapati pengundi jelas berpecah antara kelas-kelas yang berbeza, dengan kelas bekerja dan berpendapatan rendah kebanyakannya mengundi BN, dan kelas pertengahan dan atasan memilih PR.

Pengarah Merdeka Centre Ibrahim Suffian menekankan perbezaan antara kaum mencadangkan pengundi tidak berpecah mengikut kaum tetapi lebih kepada ideologi yang berbeza yang dikemukakan oleh kedua-dua BN dan PR.

Umno semakin jadi ‘Parti Kampong’?

Posted: 22 May 2013 12:49 AM PDT

The Malaysian Insider

Salah satu hakikat yang terserlah dalam PRU ke-13 lalu ialah Umno-BN (UBN) semakin jelas telah menjadi "Parti Kampong". Penulisan ringkas ini bercadang untuk menguatkan hujjah kepada tesis dan penemuan ini.

Penulisan saya dengan tajuk "Najib semakin seksa selepas menang" ingin dipanjangkan di sini. Sesungguhnya tajuk ini boleh sahaja dijadikan antara buku yang boleh diterbitkan pasca PRU ke-13 ini oleh penulis-penulis tempatan.

Setelak debu peperangan mendap dan euporia "kemenangan" mula pudar, Najib terpaksa berdepan dengan beberapa hakikat yang sangat menggugah dan menyeksa jiwanya.

 Persetankan "kata-kata nista" pembangkang tentang Kabinet XXL yang baru dilantiknya. Pelbagai kritikan termasuk kelompok pengamal serta pensyarah-profesor undang-undang yang mempertikaikan kesahihan kaedah melantik menteri dari kelompok senator yang belum lagi mengangkat sumpah sebagai senator.

Persetankan apa jua cemohan rakyat tentang "tusnami Cina" ciptaan Najib sekaligus menampakkan dendam kesumatnya terhadap etnik ini serentak menajamkan lagi garis perkauman. Persetankan gagasan "Blackout 505" yang cuba diketengahkan bagi membangkitkan kesedaran rakyat tentang pilihanraya sarat penipuan.

Persetankan "Tribunal Rakyat" cadangan BERSIH dan masyarakat sivil. Persetankan panggilan "Kerajaan Minoriti" walaupun jelas dengan ukuran "undi popular" di semenanjung dan seluruh negara.

Namun seperkara yang tidak boleh dipersetankan Najib dan pimpinan UBN ialah hakikat bahawa parti dan barisan yang dipimpinnya sedang mengalami hari-hari kepupusannya (demise) dalam persaingan sengit "Politik Baru". Najib UBN bukan sahaja masih hidup dalam penafian bahkan cuba menongkah arus menentang kemaraan "Politik Baru" ini.

Justeru fakta-fakta keputusan PRUke-13 mula menyelak dan memaparkan hakikat sebenarnya bahawa Najib dan UBN telah menang kerana diselamatkan oleh undi-undi Borneo yang tidak sempat di"jangkiti" "tsunami semenanjung".

Itu pun tak boleh selesa sangat sebab Sarawak catat peningkatan undi buat pembangkang sebanyak 8.9 peratus, kedua tertinggi selepas negeri Johor. UBN juga mengalami kemorosotan undi di 18 kerusi parlimen dari 31 kerusi parlimen di negeri itu. Dalam 8 kerusi etnik Dayak, BN mengalami 10  peratus kemorosotan undi dan Pakatan hampir merampas 2 kerusi Dayak yakni P205 Saratok and P220 Baram.

Pun begitu halnya di Sabah. BN mengalami kemorosotan undi di 19 dari 26 kerusi parlimen Sabah. Dalam 7 kerusi majoriti bumiputera yang dimenangi BN, kesemua mengalami kemorosotan undi sebanyak 10 peratus. Sangat menyeksa.

Kembali kepada tesis bahawa Umno-BN telah menjadi "parti kampong" atau parti yang hanya kuat di kampong-kampong tradisi Melayu, fakta-fakta berikut adalah sangat memalukan dan mengaibkan Najib.

Pakatan terus mengungguli dominasinya di Wilayah Persekutuan dengan memenangi 9 daripada 13 kerusi yang dipertandingkan. Pertandingan di Lambah Pantai menyerlahkan segala-gala naratif dan pengkisahan tentang percubaan UBN untuk menawan Kuala Lumpur! Kesemua ibu negeri kecuali Kangar dan Johor Bahru, terus dikuasai Pakatan Rakyat. Ini termasuk Alor Star, Kota Bharu,  Kuala Terengganu, Tanjong, Ipoh, Kuantan, Shah Alam, Seremban, Kota Melaka, Kota Kinabalu dan Kuching.

Bagi kerusi Parlimen Selangor, Pakatan Rakyat Berjaya mengekalkan dominasi kawasan Bandar dan pinggir Bandar seperti Petaling Jaya, Ampang, Serdang, Puchong, Kelana Jaya, Gombak, Subang, Shah Alam, Kapar, Klang dan Kota Raja.

BN, sejajar dengan tesis yang dimajukan, hanya mampu menaguasai "anjung utara" yang merupakan "Malay Belt" – Sabak Bernam, Sungai Besar, Tanjung Karang, Hulu Selangor dan kali ini berjaya merampas kembali kerusi Kuala Selangor yang telah berubah demografi pengundi menjadi 65 peratus-35 peratus (Melayu-65 peratus, 23 peratus-India, 12 peratus-Cina) berbanding 60-40 pada 2008 dengan N12 Jeram mencapai 80 peratus20 peratus: Melayu-Bukan Melayu.

Di Negeri Sembilan juga turut menyerlahkan fenomena ini, di mana UB unggul di kawasan luar Bandar seperti Jelebu, Jempol, Kuala Pilah, Rembau dan Tampin sementara Pakatan kekal di kawasan Seremban dan Rasah.

Penulis cenderung untuk meringkaskan dan memudahkan fenomena PRU ke-13 ini sebagai menyerlahkan trend atau pola rakyat-pengundi yang terbelah kepada dua kelompok besar:

i.  pengundi kawasan luar bandar yang tidak dapat capaian internet dan masih tegar dengan keperluan "pembangunan" dan

ii. Pengundi bandar dan pinggir bandar yang sangat terdedah kepada media baru-alternatif berbanding sogokan media UBN dan cenderung untuk menyokong agenda "penambahbaik demokrasi dan kesejahteraan rakyat".

Menyonsong masa depan dalam laluan pembangunan politik negara, ternyata bahawa Pakatan Rakyat lebih bersedia untuk mengisi harapan pengundi dalam kelompok kedua yakni pengundi yang mahukan penambahbaikan Negara dalam apa yang disebutkan kini sebagai penghayatan dan dinamika "Politik Baru".

Amat nyata pula, penulis mendapati bahawa UBN amat meminati kelompok pertama golongan luar Bandar dan juga begitu sebaliknya mereka "diminati" golongan luar Bandar ini yang telah di"bela" dengan "sogokan pembangunan" yang sebenar-benarnya "tidak membangunkan minda dan jiwa mereka" bahkan tidak juga bangunkan pendapatan sebenar (real wage) mereka.

Generasi muda yang telah meninggalkan kampong sebenarnya telah meninggalkan legasi Politik Lama yang sarat dengan Politik Menakut-nakutkan Rakyat dan Politik "Patronage" yakni ketua-ketua yang mesti "disantuni" untuk mendapat tandatangan anak-anak kampong untuk mendapat biasiswa kerajaan UBN dsbnya.

Tegasnya Umno-BN akan cuba kekal dominasi luar bandanya sekaligus menjadi "parti kampong" untuk kekal berkuasa sementara Pakatan mesti menorobos kampong dan luarbandar untuk berjaya menawan Putrajaya dalamPRU ke-14.

Peralihan demografi kearah dominasi generasi muda dalam tahun-tahun mendatang akan memberi kelebihan kepada Pakatan Rakyat sementara mendayakan "Politik Baru" dan "Politik Pencerahan" adalah formula kemenangan yang tepat dan wajar.

UBN tampaknya mungkin sahaja mahu kekal "parti kampong" yang meneruskan amalan dan legasi Politik Lama yang sarat dengan amalan politik perkauman, politik agama yang sempit dan konfrantasi, politik "Paronage-Perlindungan"penguasa politik dan orang-orang besar yang berpengaruh bermula dari JKKP sehingga keperingkat tertinggi parti. Malang!

As thousands rally in Kedah, Mahfuz warns BN against needless spats

Posted: 21 May 2013 08:07 PM PDT

The Malaysian Insider

Thousands attended the "Black 505" rally here last night, where Kedah PAS chief Datuk Mahfuz Omar warned Barisan Nasional (BN) leaders against sparking conflict as the majority was with Pakatan Rakyat (PR).

Estimating that a crowd of 50,000 had gathered outside the state PAS headquarters, Mahfuz criticised newly-minted Home Minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and Kedah Chief Minister Datuk Mukhriz Mahathir for warning against the rally.

"I would advise Zahid to accept that the majority of the people are with the Pakatan Rakyat and don't start a war with the people. Be rational," the PAS vice-president and Pokok Sena MP was quoted as saying in media reports.

"As for Mukhriz, I would ask him to open up a bit as he is still a young man. He should not behave like the Umno leaders of the past who adopted a confrontational approach with the people," Mahfuz added.

The state PAS commissioner also reminded Mukhriz's BN government that the previous PAS administration had allowed Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak the use of the state stadium for a rally last January.

Mukhriz, the youngest son of Malaysia's longest-serving prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, had refused PAS permission to hold the "Black 505" rally in the stadium last night.

The mainly Malay crowd turned up from 6.30pm for the PR rally against alleged electoral fraud and irregularities, initiated by opposition leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

"This is an extraordinary crowd and it proves people like (MCA president) Chua Soi Lek wrong. Soi Lek says only the Chinese attend the 'Black 505' rallies but what we saw tonight were the Malays in full force," Sungei Petani MP Johari Abdul told reporters after the rally.

He was among the speakers that included Anwar, PAS deputy president Mohamed Sabu, PAS vice president Datuk Salahuddin Ayub, PKR vice presidents Chua Tian Chang and N. Surendran

Umno-owned newspaper Utusan Malaysia had reported that crowds attending the six earlier "Black 505" rallies were mainly Chinese youths, taking the cue from BN leaders who complained a "Chinese tsunami" cost them votes in Election 2013.

Previous "Black 505" rallies were held in Selangor, Penang, Perak Johor, Negri Sembilan and Pahang, where thousands defied police warnings to pack stadiums and public spaces.

Taking to the stage last night, Anwar accused BN of vote-rigging and cheating as the crowd roared with cheers. He also gave fresh examples of the Election Commission's (EC) alleged connivance in "making fools of the voters".

The PKR de facto leader also told EC staff to "stand up" and speak out against the alleged polls fraud in the elections where BN won 133 federal seats against PR's 89 seats. PR is disputing the results of 29 seats.

In Election 2008, BN won 140 federal seats to lose its two-thirds super-majority while PR took 82 seats.

Pakatan MPs to use parliamentary strength to block unfair redelineation

Posted: 21 May 2013 08:02 PM PDT

The Malaysian Insider

Pakatan Rakyat (PR) federal lawmakers have vowed to make full use of their increased parliamentary numbers to ensure constituencies are fairly redrawn when the Election Commission (EC) kicks off the redelineation exercise this year-end.

PKR's Pandan MP Rafizi Ramli reminded that if the exercise involves an increase in seat numbers, a two-thirds majority vote is needed to approve the changes before they are passed by the lower House.

The ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) does not have required two-thirds majority in Parliament, with only 133 seats to PR's 89 seats, and will require votes from opposition lawmakers to approve the exercise.

"But if they (EC) do not add constituencies and the process only includes redrawing boundaries, this could be dangerous as this allows gerrymandering and there is no need for a two-third vote.

"In the past, they (BN) score big in the elections because the redelineation exercise is often in [their] favour … they disperse our support to other seats," Rafizi told The Malaysian Insider.

But the PKR strategy director said it was likely that, this time, redelineation would include an increase in seat numbers.

He said that in tandem with the DAP's "one vote, one value" campaign push, PR lawmakers will fight hard to use their parliamentary powers to ensure voters are more fairly distributed unlike the present situation.

The allegedly unfair dispersal of voters in constituencies here has been used as a major argument point by PR lawmakers to back accusations that gerrymandering in favour of BN has helped the ruling pact stay in power.

In a recent article on news portal FZ.com, Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs (IDEAS) chief executive Wan Saiful Wan Jan had pointed out that the existing delineation of constituencies defies logic in terms of size and the number of voters.

"Putrajaya has 15,791 voters compared with Kapar, which has 144,159 voters. It doesn't make sense."

"And then you have a state seat like Sri Serdang with 72,769 voters which is higher than the Putrajaya parliamentary seat," he was quoted saying.

This has also earned the attention of the foreign media.

In the Wall Street Journal yesterday, Hong Kong journalist Philip Bowring commented on how PR had lost the election despite winning 51 per cent of the popular vote ? an outcome that opposition lawmakers and civil society groups have blamed on unfair gerrymandering.

"Thanks to an extreme anti-urban bias and the abolition of rules governing the relative size of constituencies, the largest constituency has nine times more voters than the smallest.

"On that basis, and taking account of the number of closely fought seats, the opposition would probably have to win at least 58 per cent of the popular vote to get a majority of seats," Bowring wrote.

Speaking to The Malaysian Insider, DAP's publicity secretary Tony Pua said with the polls now over and efforts underway to challenge some of the results through election petitions, the next step for PR would be to focus on the coming redelineation exercise.

The EC recently said that the exercise will be kicked off by year-end after the six-month process to hear election petitions are completed. The petitions must be filed within 21 days after the results of the election are gazetted.

The Federal Constitution prohibits a redelineation exercise from being conducted within eight years of the last. The EC last redrew constituency lines in 2003.

"The focus will be on one man, one vote, one value, apart from pushing other related reforms. What we want is a more level playing field in the next general election.

"And this means that we should not be seeing a coalition winning the popular vote but losing the parliamentary seat count by a mile," Pua said.

"Given that BN does not have two-thirds majority in Parliament, the exercise must be agreeable to both sides," he added.

DAP's Rasah MP Anthony Loke agreed with his party colleague, saying it was important that PR makes full use of its influence in Parliament and put up a fight if they are disagreeable to the EC's redelineation proposal.

"We have more than one-third of our MPs in Parliament. We are a strong enough force to ensure that redelineation is done properly and professionally.

"The weightage of votes cannot be as ridiculous as it is today," he said.

PAS's Shah Alam MP Khalid Samad said there must be a more "reasonable" spread of voters across the constituencies to ensure that every vote has the same value across all constituencies.

"In some cases, you have a parliamentary seat with less than 10,000 voters… and elsewhere, you have seats with over 100,000 voters.

"We will be trying to push for fairer representation across the board," he said.

BN snapped up 133 federal seats to PR's 89 seats in the May 5 polls but for the first time ince 1969, the ruling pact lost the popular vote, scoring just under 48 per cent of the votes cast to PR's 51 per cent.

PR leaders immediately cried foul with its de facto chief Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim insisting that his federal opposition pact had won the election.

Readout of the President’s Call with Prime Minister Najib of Malaysia

Posted: 21 May 2013 08:23 AM PDT

The White House

President Obama called Prime Minister Najib on the evening of May 13 to congratulate him on his victory in parliamentary elections and to reaffirm the strong bonds of friendship between the United States and Malaysia.  The President noted that Malaysians had turned out in record numbers to vote and welcomed the Prime Minister's efforts to address concerns about election irregularities. The two leaders discussed the importance of continuing to deepen our bilateral cooperation, including on expanding cooperation on trade, regional security, and multilateral cooperation.

Kenyataan Oleh Setiausaha Akhbar Rumah Putih Tentang Pilihanraya Di Malaysia

Posted: 21 May 2013 08:17 AM PDT

[TERJEMAHAN]

The White House

Bagi pihak Presiden dan rakyat Amerika Syarikat, kami mengucapkan tahniah kepada Perdana Menteri Najib atas kemenangan koalisinya dalam pilihanraya Parlimen pada hari Ahad, 5 Mei. Kami juga ingin mengucapkan tahniah kepada rakyat Malaysia kerana peratusan keluar mengundi yang tinggi, dan juga kepada parti-parti pembangkang untuk kempen mereka, kerana pembangkang yang teguh adalah batu asas kepada demokrasi. Kami juga sedar bahawa terdapat laporan tentang berlakunya penipuan dalam proses pilihanraya, dan percaya bahawa ianya sangat penting bagi pihak bertanggungjawab menyelesaikan isu-isu yang berbangkit. Kami menanti hasil siasatan mereka. Amerika Syarikat akan meneruskan hubungan yang rapat antara kerajaan dan rakyat Malaysia demi mengukuhkan demokrasi, keamanan dan kemakmuran di rantau ini.

Statement by The White House Press Secretary on Malaysia’s Elections

Posted: 21 May 2013 07:41 AM PDT

The White House

On behalf of the President and the people of the United States, we congratulate Prime Minister Najib on his coalition's victory in Malaysia's parliamentary elections on Sunday May 5.  We also congratulate the people of Malaysia, who turned out in record numbers to cast their votes, as well as the parties of the opposition coalition on their campaigns, as a vibrant opposition is a foundation of democracy.  We note concerns regarding reported irregularities in the conduct of the election, and believe it is important that Malaysian authorities address concerns that have been raised.  We look forward to the outcome of their investigations.  The United States looks forward to continuing its close cooperation with the government and the people of Malaysia to continue to strengthen democracy, peace, and prosperity in the region.

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